Forecasting Principles for Pharma
METHODS, DRIVERS, AND MODELS
This live, virtual instructor-led program provides a practical, hands-on introduction to pharmaceutical forecasting. Participants learn how to build, evaluate, and communicate reliable forecasts using proven methods, clearly defined assumptions, and scenario-based modelling.
Through interactive instruction and real-world case studies, the course covers demand-based, epidemiology-based, and event-based forecasting approaches used across the pharmaceutical industry. Emphasis is placed on forecast logic, key drivers, and transparency, ensuring forecasts are credible, defensible, and decision-ready.
Participants leave with the confidence and tools to contribute meaningfully to forecasting discussions and support commercial decision-making across the organisation.
Do you develop, inform, manage, or approve the brand forecast at your company?
Biopharma asset valuation provides investors and pharmaceutical companies with a detailed overview of the worth of their pharmaceutical assets across the development lifecycle, from early through to late stage assets.
We use our scientific expertise and advanced financial modelling to help us project cash flows, sale potential and company value, whilst also factoring in developmental and regulatory risks and competitive dynamics.
Using historical data and future market predictions, we work with a range of clients to provide a detailed report that can be used as a solid basis for future decision-making, which can give them a competitive advantage and pave the way for commercial success – find out how we helped a healthcare equity investment firm do just that.
We offer thorough, detailed opportunity assessments, using a diverse range of qualitative and quantitative research methods to prioritise key opportunities that offer the greatest commercial potential.
Course Learning Objectives
Upon completion, you will know how to:
- Apply advanced forecasting principles to key process elements as they relate to your organisation
- Develop demand- or patient-based forecasts supported by sound logic and well-vetted assumptions.
- Demystify quantitative forecasting methods and clearly explain the quantitative and qualitative aspects of forecast drivers.
Course Schedule:
DAY 1:
Fundamentals of Forecasting
- Business applications
- The forecasting process
- Common forecasting methodologies
Quantitative Forecasting
- Historical quantitative analysis
- Pre-requisites for effective forecasting
- Key forecast drivers
- Analog modeling methods
Demand-Based Forecasting
- Important forecasting considerations
- Statistical methods, including time-series analysis, moving averages, linear regression, and exponential smoothing
Creating the Baseline Forecast
- Desktop forecasting tools
- Interpreting forecast data
- Hands-on forecasting workshop
Demand-Based Forecasting Case Study
- Normalizing forecast input data
DAY 2:
Qualitative Forecasting
- Introduction to qualitative methods
- Executive opinion and Delphi methodology
- Identifying “most likely” events
Event-based Forecasting
- Quantifying the probability of occurrence and the impact of events
- Common events (line extensions, LOE, new market entry, etc.)
- Eventing the baseline quantitative forecast
Epidemiology/Patient-based Forecasting
- Patient flow versus patient treatment
- Reviewing all levels of the epidemiology model, including inputs and outputs
Epidemiology-Based Forecasting Challenge
- Group exercise: designing an epidemiology model in Excel
- Epidemiology model debrief
Incorporating AI with Forecasting
- Practical uses, tips, and techniques
Who should attend?
This program is designed for pharmaceutical and life sciences professionals who are responsible for developing, contributing to, reviewing, or approving commercial forecasts. It is well-suited to individuals involved in brand planning, demand planning, and commercial decision-making across the organisation.
The value of the course is specifically useful for people such as forecasters, market analysts, commercial analysts, sales operations analysts, market access and pricing analysts, and finance/business planning analysts who use the forecasts. It is also very useful for the people who provide critical assumptions or inputs for making the forecast.
Whether you are new to forecasting or an experienced professional seeking to strengthen forecast rigor, transparency, and governance, this program provides the practical knowledge and hands-on experience needed to engage confidently in forecasting discussions and improve forecast quality and alignment across the organisation.
Key Program Topics
- The forecasting process and key prerequisites
- Time-series methods for baseline projections
- Event-based forecasting to finalize the baseline
- Demand-based versus epidemiology-based forecasting
- Quantitative validation and analog modeling
- New product, in-line, and lifecycle forecasting
Contact Us
If you are interested in learning more about the topics covered in the course, the schedule, tuition, or registration processes, we invite you to contact us. We are eager to hear your goals for the course, your needs for team-based testing, or your questions about the way in which this course can serve your needs for better forecasting or commercial decision-making.
Email: info@rlsconsultants.com
