Forecasting
Healthcare Markets
and Products

Methods, Drivers, and Models
Learn how to produce, manage, or
contribute to the process of forecasting in
the pharmaceutical industry using proven
methods, key assumption drivers and
scenario-based modeling

FOR MORE INFORMATION
“Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn’t!”
Anonymous

Do you develop, inform, manage, or approve the brand forecast at your company?


This program is ideal for new and developing forecasters, marketers and cross-functional
commercial team members because it will introduce, demonstrate and
apply the core principles and processes of forecasting
for a pharmaceutical market and product.

Why should you consider this specific training for your development?
As a forecaster, this program is designed to provide you with the comprehensive knowledge and practical experience to lead the forecasting process. As a cross-functional commercial team member, this program will help you understand where to provide valuable input to better manage the forecasting process at your company.

What will you learn at this program?
It is critically important to be comprehensive when assessing the value of business opportunities, from new products to mature inline brands, and through the various stages of clinical development. At this course, we will discuss the pre-requisites of the forecasting process, how to determine and select the ideal forecasting technique (demand or epi-based), and how to interpret the business environment to inform the forecast while incorporating management assumptions.

As a training participant, you will learn to selectively choose and complete the forecasting process and methodology across diverse types of diseases, therapeutic class markets and brand forecasts, regardless of your individual level of experience. You will acquire new knowledge and skill while leveraging previous experience, no matter how limited.
Learning Objectives
Upon completion, you will know how to:
Apply the basic principles of forecasting to key process elements as they relate to your organization
Develop a demand or patient-based forecast supported by sound logic and well vetted assumptions
Demystify quantitative forecasting methods and explain the quantitative and qualitative aspects of forecast drivers
Program Topics
Topics are explored in plenary sessions with group discussion, tabletop case study exercises and a review of “what good looks like’ using real-world examples. Active participation is encouraged, and hands-on experience is certain.
The Forecasting Process: Pre-Requisites for Effective Forecasting
Time Series Methods to Develop Baseline Projections
Event-Based Forecasting: Finalizing the Baseline Forecast
Demand-Based vs. Epidemiology-Based Forecasting
Quantitative Methods for Validation & Analog Modeling
New Product, In-line Product, and Lifecycle Forecasting

Course Logistics

Delivery Modality: Virtual instructor-led training (VILT) workshop using TEAMS with live instructors, interactive discussion, onscreen exercises, breakouts, and teach-backs. We also offer custom course delivery with live instructors on site at your company.
Schedule:
DAY 1
9am to 12pm, and 2pm to 4:30pm EST*
Fundamentals of Forecasting
  • Business Applications
  • The Forecasting Process
  • Common Forecasting Methodologies
Quantitative Forecasting
  • Historical Quantitative Analysis
  • Pre-Requisites for Effective Forecasting
  • Key Forecast Drivers
  • Analog Modeling Methods
Demand-Based Forecasting
  • Important Forecasting Considerations
  • Statistical, Time-Series, Moving Averages, Linear Regression, Exponential Smoothing
Creating the Baseline Forecast
  • Desktop Forecasting Tools
  • Interpreting Forecast Data
  • Hands-On Forecasting Workshop
Demand-Based Forecasting Case Study
  • Normalizing Forecast Input Data
DAY 2
9am to 12pm, and 2pm to 4:30pm EST
Qualitative Forecasting
  • Intro to Qualitative Methods
  • Executive Opinion & Delphi Methodology
  • Identifying “Most Likely” Events
Event-based Forecasting
  • Quantifying “probability of occurrence / impact of event”
  • Common Events (line ext, new entry, etc.)
  • Eventing the Baseline Quant Forecast
Epidemiology/Patient-based Forecasting
  • Patient Flow versus Patient Treatment
  • Reviewing all Levels of the Epi Model – Inputs & Outputs
Epidemiology-Based Forecasting Challenge
  • Group Exercise: Designing an Epi Model in Excel
  • Epi Model Debrief
Complex Analog Modeling Case Study
  • Uptake and Peak Share Analogs
* scheduled start and end times may be adapted for pacific/central time participants as required
Location: Virtual Session on TEAMS

Instructors

Participant Materials:
Learning guide containing all training content Glossary of Terms Recommended reading and website resources Job Aids for Research
Our Course Instructors
Jas Madan – Principal, Managing Director, Consulting
Jerry Rosenblatt, PhD – Managing Principal

Who Should Attend

All commercial team members who are responsible for or contributing to the forecasting process at your company
FOR MORE INFORMATION

Pharmaceutical Marketing Development Programs

MARKETING
PHARMACEUTICAL
PRODUCTS

Creating a Brand Plan
PHARMACEUTICAL
MARKET RESEARCH

Principles & Practice
ADVANCED MARKETING
& PORTFOLIO
STRATEGY

Applying Judgement & Wisdom
For more information about any Performance & Learning development services please contact our program director at info@rlsconsultants.com Mobile: 917-734-6482
CONTACT